Mesoscale Discussion 2078
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0125 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Colorado into eastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 171825Z - 172030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across central to northern New
   Mexico are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through
   the afternoon hours. Trends are being monitored, and watch issuance
   is anticipated soon.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past 30-60 minutes, initially weak convection
   across central to northern NM has shown signs of steady
   intensification via increased lightning activity and steadily
   cooling cloud-top temperatures. This uptick is largely being driven
   by diurnal destabilization as temperatures warm into the low to mid
   80s, which is eroding MLCIN and bolstering MLCAPE to around 1000
   J/kg across northern NM. Further intensification downstream across
   northeast/eastern NM and southeast CO appears likely as storms
   migrate into a relatively more moist/buoyant environment where
   southerly low-level winds are maintaining dewpoints in the upper 50s
   to low 60s. 30-40 knot mid-level flow should spread east in tandem
   with the deepening convection, which should provide adequate
   deep-layer shear for organized convection. Based on recent radar
   trends, a mix of semi-discrete clusters and supercells appears
   likely with an attendant risk of large hail (most likely between 1.0
   to 1.5 inches in diameter) and strong to severe winds. Watch
   issuance will likely be needed soon as convection continues to
   intensify and poses a greater severe threat.

   ..Moore/Gleason.. 09/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33400537 34760565 35270600 35800617 36550610 37160577
               37590516 37890430 38000351 37650305 36910283 36010290
               35080304 34410318 33980341 33580373 33310498 33400537