Mesoscale Discussion 1537
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0537 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024

   Areas affected...Southern Missouri...northern Arkansas...far
   southern Illinois...far western Kentucky...and far northwestern
   Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 042237Z - 042330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe storms damaging gusts and maybe some
   marginally severe hail are possible across portions of southern
   Missouri, northern Arkansas, far southern Illinois, far western
   Kentucky, and far northwestern Tennessee.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have developed along a weak cold front
   across portions of southern Missouri and southern Illinois and along
   a surface pressure trough across portions of northeastern Arkansas.
   These storms are along the southern periphery of the better
   mid-level flow, with 30-35 kts of effective bulk shear in the
   environment, enough for multicells or weak supercells. Short-term
   RAP forecast thermodynamic profiles also show somewhat steep
   low-level lapse rates and modestly high precipitable water values,
   which may result in wet microbursts with a few damaging gusts. Due
   to straight hodographs with weak low-level shear and modest
   deep-layer shear with deep CAPE profiles, some marginally severe
   hail may occur with the stronger storms, despite poor mid-level
   lapse rates. Clustering of storms may be limited given sparse
   convective coverage, which may limit the wind damage potential, and
   storms may wane near sunset.

   ..Supinie/Hart.. 07/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   37369317 37059412 36699456 36049449 35369422 35159212
               35089083 35438972 35718918 36048867 36688836 37368834
               37598871 37718934 37369317