Mesoscale Discussion 1494
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0312 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

   Areas affected...southern and central Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 302012Z - 302215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across
   portions of Montana with an increase in threat for damaging winds
   and large hail through the afternoon and evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues to increase in coverage
   across southwestern Montana. Recent radar trends have shown an
   uptick in lightning activity. Daytime heating across Montana has led
   to temperatures in the mid to upper 70 to low 80s across southern,
   central, and eastern Montana. Surface objective analysis indicates
   steep low to mid-level lapse rates in an environment characterized
   by MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg. Instability is progged to increase
   through the afternoon, along with large scale lift as enhanced
   upper-level flow overspreads the region from the west. As a result,
   deep layer shear will also increase, aiding in more organized storms
   that will tend to grow upscale through time and pose a risk of
   damaging wind and some instances of large hail. Trends will be
   monitored, with potential for a watch to be needed in this region in
   the next 1-2 hrs.

   ..Thornton/Gleason.. 06/30/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

   LAT...LON   45161317 46501182 47480909 47490759 46990707 45810612
               45630624 45260973 45211076 44791177 44401275 44681314
               45161317