Mesoscale Discussion 1476
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0309 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

   Areas affected...central/eastern PA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 482...

   Valid 292009Z - 292145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 482 continues.

   SUMMARY...A risk for damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes will
   continue into early evening across central into eastern PA.

   DISCUSSION...A line of convection over central PA will continue to
   track toward the east at around 35-45 mph over the next few hours.
   This activity has a history or producing sporadic wind damaging
   across western and central PA this afternoon. The downstream airmass
   has warmed into the upper 80s amid near-70 F dewpoints. Lapse rates
   will remain poor, limiting stronger instability, though around 1000
   J/kg MLCAPE is expected to spread eastward with time. Effective
   shear magnitudes around 40 kt, and enlarged, favorably curved
   low-level hodographs will continue supporting organized convection
   with a risk of damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. If current
   trends are maintained, an aerial watch extension may be needed
   across southeastern portions of WFO CTP as convection is expected to
   near the edge of Tornado Watch 482 by around 22z. The need for a
   downstream watch into portions of far southeast PA and NJ remains
   uncertain, but trends will be monitored.

   ..Leitman.. 06/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   41357721 41277641 40707607 40177612 39747645 39707732
               39757894 39987928 40597887 41227783 41357721