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Mesoscale Discussion 1448 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Areas affected...Portions of far eastern Montana and western North
Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473...
Valid 272057Z - 272230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe risk is increasing across far eastern Montana into
western ND, including the potential for large hail, damaging winds,
and perhaps a tornado or two.
DISCUSSION...Cumulus is deepening along an effective warm front
extending east-southeastward from eastern MT into western ND, and
isolated convective initiation is underway over Wibaux County MT.
Regional VWP shows ample low-level hodograph curvature associated
with backed surface winds beneath a plume of strong low-level
warm-air advection. Additionally, diurnal heating along the boundary
has yielded moderate surface-based instability. These factors, along
with around 50 kt of effective shear, could support a couple
semi-discrete supercells. Large hail and damaging winds are the main
concern, though the favorable low-level hodograph curvature could
support a tornado threat as well.
A watch will eventually be needed into western North Dakota for the
above-mentioned severe risk and for severe storms tracking eastward
out of eastern Montana.
..Weinman/Hart.. 06/27/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 46200368 46610441 47130482 47600479 47860461 48130421
48070393 47910348 47450292 47040265 46360279 46120317
46200368
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