Mesoscale Discussion 1331
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern NY into New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191610Z - 191815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic, localized downbursts with gusts from 50-60 mph
   along with small hail of 0.5-1.0 inch in diameter will be possible
   with pulse-type thunderstorms through this afternoon. A watch is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed across parts of
   eastern NY into VT, with increasingly agitated Cu downstream into NH
   and western ME. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should
   occur through the afternoon amid a moderate buoyancy plume
   characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, driven by 71-74 F surface
   dew points in lower elevations. Deep-layer shear is weak per the CXX
   VWP data and is expected to remain so, especially with eastern
   extent in New England. Slightly greater mid to upper flow upstream
   over the Lower Great Lakes, per the 12Z BUF sounding, may support
   weakly organized clustering by peak heating. But slow-moving,
   pulse-type storms should largely dominate. Primary threat should be
   localized downbursts with strong gusts capable of producing sporadic
   tree damage.

   ..Grams/Smith.. 06/19/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   42007348 42987507 44657409 45107373 45817031 45606941
               45026949 44177051 42897213 42007348