Mesoscale Discussion 0701
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0116 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

   Areas affected...much of eastern Oklahoma...western Arkansas...and
   far northeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 081816Z - 082045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms with very large hail and a few
   tornadoes (possibly strong) are expected by late afternoon from
   eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and into parts of northern
   Texas.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery as well as surface
   observations show a cold front extending from far southeast KS and
   northeast OK southward toward the Red River. Additionally, a dryline
   extends roughly from just west of the Metroplex southwestward
   towards Del Rio TX.

   A very moist and unstable air mass exists across the region, with
   MLCAPE of 3500-4000 J/kg common. Low-level convergence continues to
   increase along the boundaries, with winds gusting to 15-20 kt out of
   the west behind them.

   Effective deep-layer shear of 45-50 kt across the entire length of
   the boundaries, combined with the very strong instability will favor
   the development of scattered supercells, potentially producing 3-4"
   diameter hail by early evening. Tornadoes, a few of which may be
   strong, will also be possible given the tremendous thermodynamic
   energy, favorable storm mode, and sufficient 0-1 SRH over 100 m2/s2.

   ..Jewell/Smith.. 05/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36299547 36729507 36949473 36999410 36959361 36879331
               36629325 36329333 35279388 33749495 33029562 32959630
               33249665 33939658 34979612 36299547