Mesoscale Discussion 0679
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0253 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024

   Areas affected...eastern IL...IN...and southwest Lower MI

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 195...

   Valid 071953Z - 072100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 195 continues.

   SUMMARY...Additional supercells are expected to develop and
   intensify from the Lake Michigan vicinity southward towards the
   Wabash Valley. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible,
   with the tornado threat increasing as supercells mature into
   Indiana.

   DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells have been sustained along the
   IL/WI border and earlier across the south part of Chicagoland, both
   of which should weaken as they progress across southern Lake
   Michigan. Several additional updrafts are gradually maturing farther
   south over eastern into southern IL and northwest IN. Richer
   boundary-layer moisture and stronger low-level shear across the
   Wabash Valley portion of the region, all render increasing concern
   for one or two of these storms to become long-track supercells.
   Within an environment characterized by STP around 3-4, potential
   will exist for a strong tornado. A limiting factor though with
   southern extent is the degree of mid-level warmth/dryness south of
   the intense jet that is ejecting farther north across northern IL
   into southern Lower MI. This also renders uncertainty with how far
   south sustained supercell development will occur in the near-term
   over the Lower OH Valley.

   ..Grams.. 05/07/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   42318646 42628604 42458555 42098515 41288504 40068631
               38648677 38168743 38428884 38798902 39958849 40768846
               41468802 42318646