Mesoscale Discussion 0608
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0608 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024

   Areas affected...Central/South-Central OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022308Z - 030115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail up to 1" in diameter is possible
   across portion of central and south-central Oklahoma this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar and visible satellite imagery has shown
   some modest increase in both thunderstorm coverage and intensity
   over central OK during the past half hour or so, some of which
   occurred along the cold front and some of which developed to the
   southeast of a weak frontal low. The air mass is uncapped and
   moderately buoyant, so some additional thunderstorm development is
   anticipated across the region as the cold front slowly pushes
   southward/southeastward. A predominately multicellular mode is
   anticipated but moderate vertical shear (i.e. around 35-40 kt of
   effective bulk shear) is in place across the region, which should be
   sufficient for a few more organized storm structures. Consequently,
   some isolated hail up to 1" in diameter appears possible this
   evening with any of the more mature/organized storms. Overall severe
   coverage is expected to remain isolated, likely precluding the need
   for a watch. However, convective trends across the region are being
   monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35189897 36029774 35949629 34659634 34069708 34179834
               34519901 35189897