Mesoscale Discussion 0573
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

   Areas affected...parts of south central New York...northeastern
   Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301712Z - 301945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms, possibly including a gradually
   organizing cluster, may pose increasing potential for marginally
   severe hail and wind by 2-4 PM EDT.  It is still not clear that a
   severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be
   monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Downstream of remnant mid-level troughing crossing the
   lower Great Lakes region, modest destabilization is underway across
   eastern portions of the Allegheny Plateau in response to insolation.
    This is leading to deepening boundary layer-based convection ahead
   of a weak cold front now advancing southeast of Lakes Ontario and
   Erie, and through the upper Ohio Valley.  

   Models suggest that large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute
   to intensifying thunderstorm development by the 18-20Z time frame,
   with orographic forcing perhaps contributing to a consolidating
   cluster of convection across the southern tier of New York and
   adjacent northern Pennsylvania.  Thereafter, given increasing inflow
   of sufficiently moist boundary-layer air to support CAPE in excess
   of 500 J/kg, a belt of 30-40+ kt southwesterly flow in the 700-500
   mb layer may contribute to a period of increasing organization and
   potential for strong to marginally severe surface gusts, as activity
   propagates toward the Catskills and Poconos vicinity.  With
   east-southeasterly low-level flow maintaining a relatively cool and
   stable boundary-layer across the northern Mid Atlantic into the the
   Poconos and Catskills, it appears that the potential for damaging
   wind gusts will rapidly diminish to the east of the higher terrain
   later this afternoon.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/30/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   41847727 42567612 42737478 41757482 41117574 41017655
               40837723 41197754 41847727