Mesoscale Discussion 0438
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1001 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

   Areas affected...portions of eastern West Virginia...northern
   Virginia and western Maryland

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151501Z - 151630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated showers and thunderstorms may produce gusty winds
   or small hail the next couple of hours across parts of the West
   Virginia, Maryland and Virginia border vicinity.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms have developed late this
   morning ahead of a stationary boundary near the WV/MD/VA border.
   This activity is likely somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, weak
   instability (generally less than 500 J/kg MUCAPE) amid steep
   midlevel lapse rates and modest effective shear could support
   sporadic small hail. A dry, mixed boundary-layer and light low-level
   flow also may foster gusty winds around 40-50 mph. This initial
   thunderstorm activity is expected to remain isolated and the overall
   severe threat limited over the next couple of hours, and a watch is
   not expected. The severe threat will increase across portions of
   Mid-Atlantic later this afternoon, and this later threat will be
   addressed with additional MCDs in the coming hours.

   ..Leitman/Smith.. 04/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   39737960 39597725 39007670 38677719 38727842 38957953
               39207981 39737960