Mesoscale Discussion 0368
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1020 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of northern NC into VA...MD...and DE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 031520Z - 031715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms capable of producing
   damaging winds, a few tornadoes and perhaps some hail should
   gradually increase over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance
   will probably be needed.

   DISCUSSION...15Z surface observations show a front draped southwest
   to northeast across VA into MD/DE, with a surface low centered over
   southwest VA. This low is forecast to slowly deepen as it develops
   northeastward along the front towards central VA/MD by late this
   afternoon. Although clouds remain widespread across much of the
   Mid-Atlantic, a moist and gradually destabilizing airmass is present
   along/south of the front into NC. A lobe of ascent associated with
   the left exit region of a strong upper-level jet and a mid-level
   vorticity maximum over the central Appalachians will likely
   encourage additional convective development in the next 1-2 hours
   across western into central VA. This activity will likely become
   organized, with the potential for a mix of small bowing clusters and
   supercells possible given the presence of very strong deep-layer
   shear.

   Instability may tend to remain fairly muted given the widespread
   cloud cover. Still, MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg should eventually
   develop with continued low-level warming/moistening, and given
   steepened mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z RNK sounding.
   Damaging winds will be possible with any robust cluster that can
   develop and track northeastward. A tornado threat should exist with
   any supercell, as 0-1 km shear of 35-40 kt and ample effective SRH
   should encourage low-level updraft rotation. Isolated hail may also
   occur with any convection that can remain semi-discrete. Given
   expectations for a gradually increasing severe threat in the next
   1-2 hours, watch issuance will probably be needed.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36407975 36987971 37767885 38757723 38867601 38647503
               38337502 37517552 36757638 36127742 36087899 36407975