Mesoscale Discussion 0316
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0443 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

   Areas affected...portions of central Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 312143Z - 312345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple instances of hail and perhaps strong wind gusts
   will accompany the stronger storms over the next few hours. The
   severe threat is expected to remain isolated into the evening hours.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple discrete storms (possibly small supercells)
   have been percolating in intensity over the past hour or so, as seen
   by MRMS mosaic radar data. These storms are traversing a diffuse
   effective warm front, where at least upper 50s F surface dewpoints
   and steep low-level lapse rates are contributing up to 500 J/kg of
   thin MLCAPE. RAP forecast soundings and regional VADs show
   relatively straight, elongated hodographs, which favor a continued
   discrete storm mode with persistent enough mid-level rotation to
   foster some hail production. A couple of strong wind gusts are also
   possible given the steep low-level lapse rates. The severe threat
   should remain sparse and localized into the evening hours, when a
   weakening trend is expected given nocturnal cooling.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 03/31/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   38107956 37637809 37127725 36817705 36587724 36647775
               37117863 37547944 37837970 38107956