Mesoscale Discussion 0226
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern KS into western/northern MO and
   west-central IL

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 38...

   Valid 140730Z - 140900Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 38
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Hail and localized severe gusts will remain possible
   overnight. Eventual downstream watch issuance is possible, depending
   on convective trends.

   DISCUSSION...At 0730 UTC, multiple storm clusters are ongoing from
   eastern KS into western/northern MO and western IL. The most
   vigorous ongoing cluster (based on radar and satellite trends) is
   located across east-central/southeast KS, where a strong
   mid/upper-level jet is impinging upon moderate to strong elevated
   buoyancy (MUCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg). Steep midlevel lapse
   rates, cold temperatures aloft, and sufficient effective shear will
   support a hail threat with the strongest storms in this region,
   though a possible transition to more of a linear mode may temper
   hail potential to some extent. Also, despite the presence of some
   low-level stability, localized severe gusts will continue to be
   possible with this cluster, as indicated by a recent 59 mph gust
   near Eureka, KS. 

   Other elevated storm clusters are ongoing in an east-west oriented
   band from northeast KS into northern MO. Severe gusts have recently
   been observed at Kirksville and Moberly, MO, and moderate elevated
   buoyancy will continue to support a threat of isolated hail and
   strong gusts as these clusters move eastward. 

   With time, a larger QLCS could evolve and accelerate eastward, as
   the southeast KS cluster merges with convection and a related
   outflow boundary to its north and northeast. This could lead to some
   eventual increase in severe potential to the east of WW 38.
   Depending on convective trends through the overnight hours, eventual
   downstream watch issuance is possible.

   ..Dean/Edwards.. 03/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37029674 38059585 38999535 39919480 39869245 40519191
               40839137 40879059 40778998 39958989 39489059 39199115
               38829190 38269301 37569423 37279490 37239536 37079593
               37029674