Mesoscale Discussion 0216
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0526 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

   Areas affected...west central Missouri through eastern Kansas and
   northeastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 122226Z - 122330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorm development is
   possible through the 7-9 PM CDT time frame, including the potential
   evolution of isolated supercells posing a risk for marginally severe
   hail and wind.

   DISCUSSION...To the south and east of a weak low, embedded within
   broader surface troughing across much of the central Great Plains,
   the boundary-layer has become modestly deep and well mixed, with a
   corridor of limited low-level moisture return (including mid/upper
   50s F surface dew points) contributing to CAPE on the order of
   500-1000 J/kg. This generally extends from near/west of Kansas City
   into the eastern Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity, near the southern
   periphery  of colder mid-level air (at or below -20C around 500 mb)
   associated with a digging short wave trough.

   Inhibition has slowly been eroded within peak afternoon heating,
   aided by large-scale ascent, particularly across the Greater Kansas
   City vicinity, where stronger low-level warm advection has become
   focused, and across the eastern Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity,
   within the exit region of an east-southeastward propagating
   mid-level jet (50+ kt around 500 mb).  

   Strongest deep-layer shear is focused closer to the mid-level jet
   core, where the initiation of vigorous discrete thunderstorm
   development seems most probable prior to sunset, before waning
   earlier with the loss of daytime heating.  Farther north, high
   resolution convection allowing guidance has been suggestive that
   that higher probabilities for the initiation of sustained
   thunderstorm development will await nocturnal low-level jet
   strengthening, and enhancement of forcing associated with low-level
   warm advection, generally near/east of Kansas City.

   At least attempts at thunderstorm initiation appear ongoing
   throughout the destabilizing environment.  Regardless of the timing
   of sustained initiation, isolated supercells structures may evolve
   and promote a period with potential for convection to produce
   marginally severe hail and wind.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/12/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39569575 39979472 39989373 39279284 38729357 38319419
               37039438 36289503 36589626 37369595 38289594 39569575