Mesoscale Discussion 0209
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0122 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024

   Areas affected...extreme southeast Alabama...western Florida
   Panhandle...and far southwest Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 090722Z - 091115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms could gradually intensify through early morning,
   with a conditional threat of a tornado or a few damaging gusts. The
   area is currently under observation.

   DISCUSSION...A slow-moving front currently extends from near the MS
   Coast into southeast AL, reinforced by convective outflow.
   Thunderstorms persist along this boundary, with periodic stronger
   cores.

   The air mass at the surface remains very moist with dewpoints above
   70 F over much of the area, the exception being the eastern FL
   Panhandle and southwest GA, just east of the low-level theta-e plume
   and surface trough. Subtle environmental changes are expected
   through morning, and may result in an increase in severe potential,
   specifically, the threat for a tornado or localized damaging winds.

   First, indications are that a deeper moist plume over the northern
   Gulf may aid destabilization and moistening. While surface
   temperature may not rise, slightly better quality moisture is
   expected 1-2 km off the surface. Second, midlevel cooling with the
   upper trough will persist with 1-2 C temperature drops at 500 mb
   through 12Z. All the while, low-level shear will remain favorable
   for a brief tornado risk with 0-1 SRH of at least 200 m2/s2.

   As such, a conditional risk of isolated severe storms may
   materialize later this morning, and convective trends are being
   monitored along the front. Any substantive strengthening of the
   storms could yield watch potential.

   ..Jewell/Edwards.. 03/09/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30858762 31088724 31318657 31538610 31558547 31658498
               31838437 31708392 31298371 30908423 30528503 30138579
               30298628 30328679 30258715 30278740 30548771 30858762