Mesoscale Discussion 0206
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0312 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of north TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 082112Z - 082315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple strong storms are possible through late
   afternoon, with an isolated hail threat.

   DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently developed near the
   southwest Metroplex, with building cumulus noted along a cold front
   that is moving southeastward across the region. Despite rather
   modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating and relatively cool
   midlevel temperatures are supporting MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg
   immediately ahead of the front. Rather strong flow above 3 km AGL is
   resulting in effective shear of 40+ kt, and a couple more organized
   storms (including potential for a transient/marginal supercell) may
   evolve out of developing convection. Weak buoyancy will tend to
   limit the overall hail risk, but isolated instances of hail between
   0.75-1.5 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out through late
   afternoon. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates could support
   outflow gusts of 50-60 mph if any stronger storms can be sustained. 

   With the threat expected to remain rather limited in magnitude and
   areal extent, watch issuance is unlikely.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 03/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32139754 32649709 32819656 32819624 32399614 31969620
               31709627 31369644 31249681 31469747 31789755 32139754