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Mesoscale Discussion 188 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0188
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024
Areas affected...far east TX into LA and southwest MS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 041734Z - 041930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
through the afternoon. Hail (a few instances near 1 inch diameter)
and gusty winds (to 50 mph) may accompany this activity.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in
coverage/intensity over the next few hours from far east TX into
much of LA. Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s to near 70 F
beneath steep midlevel lapse rates are fostering MLCAPE generally
around 1500 J/kg at midday. Meanwhile, 0-6 km effective shear
magnitudes around 30-35 kt will be marginally favorable for
supercells. Already a few cells across LA have shown transient, weak
rotation. This environment will mainly support isolated hail (a few
instances of near 1 inch diameter) and gusty winds (to 50 mph).
Vertically veering low-level flow will support some potential for
low-level rotation, and regional VWP data shows favorably curved
(albeit small) low-level hodographs. Generally weak low-level winds
and a lack of well-defined surface boundaries will likely limit
tornado potential.
Given the expected transient and isolated nature of any stronger,
well-organized cells, a watch is not expected at this time.
..Leitman/Hart.. 03/04/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31599450 32109443 32599403 32749353 32689248 31339083
29828929 29428933 29378996 29899154 30319276 30589356
31109424 31599450
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