Mesoscale Discussion 0186
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1206 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024

   Areas affected...central and southern Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031806Z - 032030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development appears probable
   across much of the interior into southeastern peninsular Florida
   through 3-5 PM EST, accompanied by small to marginally severe hail
   and a risk for localized damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Weak deep-layer warm advection appears underway across
   much of the Florida peninsula, with low-amplitude mid-level
   troughing in the process of gradually shifting offshore of the
   Atlantic coast.  However, around 500 mb, temperatures are still
   generally around -13 to -15 C, with one lingering axis of colder
   temperatures forecast to spread across the interior peninsula into
   Atlantic coastal areas through 21-23Z.

   Beneath this environment, daytime heating of a relatively moist
   boundary layer with surface dew points ranging from the mid 60s to
   near 70 F is contributing to substantive destabilization, with CAPE
   increasing through 1000-1500+ J/kg.  Although low-level convergence,
   and forcing for upward vertical motion in general, appears weak,
   deepening convection with widely scattered thunderstorm development
   is underway across the interior through southeastern peninsula
   coastal areas.  And a gradual further increase and intensification
   of storms seems probable through mid to late afternoon, as potential
   instability peaks.

   Although flow in the lowest 5-6 km AGL is generally weak, stronger
   flow (50+ kt) in higher levels may still enhance thunderstorm
   development, and contribute to potential for small to marginally
   severe hail in the stronger cells developing this afternoon.  As
   low-level lapse rates continue to steepen, heavy precipitation
   loading and latent cooling aided by melting hail probably will also
   contribute to potential for isolated locally damaging downbursts.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 03/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   29618263 29658184 28808139 28348083 27778056 27138002
               25998046 26348091 26608135 27628165 28158220 28698224
               29618263