Mesoscale Discussion 0143
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024

   Areas affected...southeastern Wisconsin into parts of southwestern
   and south central lower Michigan

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 150800Z - 151200Z

   SUMMARY...A period of moderate to heavy snow appears likely to
   overspread the remainder of southern Wisconsin into southern lower
   Michigan through 6-8 AM EST, possibly including a brief burst of
   very heavy snow rates around or in excess of 2 inches per hour.

   DISCUSSION...Rapidly cooling cloud tops in a small cluster
   overspreading southern Wisconsin appears aided by forcing for ascent
   beneath a focused area of intensifying upper divergence, between
   coupled upper jets propagating into and across the Upper Midwest and
   Great Lakes vicinity.  This appears to coincide with a short-lived
   period of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis, which
   is forecast to shift across the remainder of southern Wisconsin into
   portions of southern lower Michigan through 11-13Z. 

   Although surface temperatures generally remain above freezing along
   this corridor, the saturating column above is sub-freezing. 
   Forecast soundings indicate that temperatures around -15 C are
   focused near the 600 mb level, where the environment is most
   conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth.  In response to a
   period of strengthening lift within this layer, snow rates appear to
   be increasing.  Based on latest model output, it appears that this
   may include a couple hour period of hourly rates in excess of 1
   inch, in the presence of precipitable water increasing to around .5
   inches.  Latest Rapid Refresh output suggest that a brief burst of
   2+ inch per hour rates might not be out of the question.

   ..Kerr.. 02/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...MKX...

   LAT...LON   43548874 43578479 43018361 42278478 42488595 42618785
               42738894 43548874