Mesoscale Discussion 0133
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0438 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

   Areas affected...Central Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 112238Z - 120045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado watch may be needed this evening across central
   Alabama.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level southerly flow has continued to destabilize
   farther east across Alabama this afternoon. Additional
   destabilization is expected this evening as temperatures cool aloft
   ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. In addition, some
   increase in low-level flow is also forecast this evening which will
   elongate hodographs in the low-levels. 

   Thunderstorms with some supercell structures have started to mature
   along and slightly north of the warm front across central
   Mississippi. These storms will pose a threat for all hazards with
   the greatest tornado threat associated with storms which can latch
   onto or remain rooted within the more buoyant airmass south of the
   warm front. There is uncertainty how likely this is, but if it does
   occur, tornadoes, some potentially strong, would be possible given
   the low-level shear in the region. 

   The evolution of these storms across Mississippi as they approach
   Alabama will be monitored closely and a tornado watch may be needed
   if they continue to strengthen and especially if they are able to
   root along or south of the warm front.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 02/11/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   31698841 32318856 32878840 33348668 33348577 32868535
               32178544 31698581 31588613 31648728 31708830 31698841