Mesoscale Discussion 0077
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0854 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024

   Areas affected...Downstream of Lakes Ontario and Erie

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 170254Z - 170730Z

   SUMMARY...An intense lake effect snow band off of Lake Ontario will
   persist through the overnight hours, with rates up to 2 in/hr. An
   additional lake effect band may intensify off of Lake Erie through
   the early morning hours.

   DISCUSSION...On the backside of a departing midlevel shortwave
   trough lifting northeastward across the Northeast, low/midlevel flow
   has become favorably aligned with the long axis of Lake Ontario,
   where an intense lake effect snow band has developed. Latest radar
   data and web cams suggest rates up to 2 in/hr over Oswego County
   with this organized band. Over the next few hours, low-level flow
   should remain unidirectional and maintain a favorable direction for
   the persistence of this band, with the heaviest snowfall rates
   expected over Oswego County. Rates up to 2 in/hr will be aided by
   persistent surface confluence along the lake and a modestly deep
   convective boundary layer extending up to about 2 km. In the 04-06Z
   time frame, low-level flow will back to a west-southwesterly
   direction, likely shifting the lake effect band northward into
   Jefferson County with time. However, increasing subsidence on the
   backside of the aforementioned midlevel trough could lead to
   decreased convective boundary layer depths and a slight reduction in
   rates.

   Off of Lake Erie, latest radar data shows some intensification of a
   lake effect snow band extending into Erie County. While low-level
   flow is modestly aligned with the long axis of the lake, the backing
   low-level winds with time should yield a more persistent band into
   the early morning hours. Thermodynamic conditions appear slightly
   less conducive compared to Lake Ontario, though rates could approach
   2 in/hr if the snow band becomes persistent and organized.

   ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43287614 43427682 43567703 43747686 43877642 43877607
               43847576 43747538 43527526 43207551 43287614