Mesoscale Discussion 0071
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0732 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024

   Areas affected...Southern LA...south-central MS...northern
   AL...northwest GA...and southeast TN

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 160132Z - 160600Z

   SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation (primarily freezing rain and
   sleet) will continue across portions of the Southeast into the
   overnight hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and web cams show a
   continuation of light freezing rain extending from southern LA
   northeastward into southeast TN this evening. This precipitation is
   generally being aided by a persistent low-level frontogenetic
   circulation and steady low-level warm advection across the region.
   This forcing for ascent should remain fairly persistent and
   quasi-stationary through about 06Z, with a slight southeastward
   evolution of the frontogenetic band with time. 

   The 00Z observed JAN sounding depicts an 8 dec C warm nose atop a
   substantial (albeit shallow) sub-freezing layer (minimum wet bulb
   temperature of -8 deg C). Any descending ice should completely melt
   before re-freezing at the surface, suggesting that freezing rain
   will remain the predominant precipitation type. Farther north toward
   northwest GA and southeast TN, a deeper sub-freezing layer and
   minimal warm nose may favor a mix of sleet and freezing rain. While
   dry air aloft overspreading the region (evident in water vapor
   imagery and observed/forecast soundings) and modest forcing for
   ascent may temper overall precipitation rates, the quasi-stationary
   forcing will support a fairly prolonged period of light to moderate
   freezing rain and sleet, with localized bursts of higher rates
   possible in the more robust cores. 

   Colder surface temperatures will gradually spread southeastward and
   support freezing rain in areas currently above freezing during the
   next few hours (i.e., portions of southeast LA and east-central MS).

   ..Weinman.. 01/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...
   LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   30269318 30779292 31449196 32569019 34488706 35308530
               35408476 35128432 34638466 33158682 31378909 30519025
               29549117 29349200 29439257 29729316 30269318