Mesoscale Discussion 0063
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1049 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast New York into the New England region

   Concerning...Snow Squall 

   Valid 141649Z - 142045Z

   SUMMARY...Thermodynamic conditions will remain favorable for snow
   squalls as a cold front pushes east into the New England region.

   DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar depicts broken bands of shallow
   convection along an eastward moving cold front from upstate NY into
   eastern PA. Visibility reductions between 1/4 to 1 mile have been
   observed with the passage of these bands and are primarily being
   driven by bursts of moderate to heavy snow with 25-35 mph wind
   gusts. The 12 UTC PIT sounding likely sampled the convective
   environment most accurately with nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates
   from the surface to ~750 mb, which appears to be represented well by
   recent 0-3 km lapse rate analyses. The plume of 8+ C/km low-level
   lapse rates is forecast to spread to the northeast into the New
   England region through the day in tandem with the cooler mid-level
   temperatures associated with the primary trough axis. Low-level
   instability should be bolstered by modest diurnal heating between
   cloud breaks through the afternoon, and a weak influx of moisture
   may support occasional lightning flashes, though sustained,
   lightning-producing convection is not necessarily anticipated.
   Nonetheless, the combination of improving low-level thermodynamics,
   focused ascent along the front, and 30-40 mph winds within the
   boundary layer should maintain the snow squall potential well into
   the afternoon.

   ..Moore.. 01/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   40817558 41267567 42257496 44237351 44587283 44747124
               44797089 44607048 44146998 43776984 43257045 42577077
               41467167 41237225 41187286 40497484 40817558