Mesoscale Discussion 0053
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0755 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

   Areas affected...Central/northern MS...Northeast LA...extreme
   southwest TN

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 10...

   Valid 121355Z - 121530Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts and a couple tornadoes will
   move eastward through mid morning.

   DISCUSSION...A convective line, which earlier produced measured
   severe gusts across AR, has shown signs of weakening across far
   northern MS into western TN, within an increasingly cool and less
   unstable environment. Farther south, convection has evolved into
   multiple bands of semi-discrete storms, with occasional stronger
   midlevel rotation noted with the strongest cells. 

   While storms across TN may continue to outpace stronger
   moistening/destabilization, storms across central/northern MS will
   continue will have greater access to richer low-level moisture and
   modest instability (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg). A notable increase in
   low-level flow has been noted on the KDGX VWP, with 60-80 kt noted
   in the lowest 1-3 km AGL, so any organized storm structures within
   this regime will pose a threat for both severe gusts (potentially
   65+ kt) and a couple tornadoes. 

   Recent surface observations indicate strong pressure falls
   associated with a deepening cyclone near the TN/AR border, which may
   help to sustain organized convection into mid/late morning as it
   moves northeastward, with some potential for later downstream watch
   issuance into parts of northwest AL. Some southward expansion of WW
   10 may also be needed to account for increasing convection into
   south-central MS.

   ..Dean/Edwards.. 01/12/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32159187 33559066 34389016 35139007 35428990 35568948
               35358875 35028812 34738793 34068795 33338816 32108892
               31778936 31768996 31799051 31829097 31889118 31869144
               32159187