Mesoscale Discussion 0043
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1029 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

   Areas affected...portions of east-central Arizona into far
   west-central New Mexico

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 111629Z - 112130Z

   SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snow are possible into the afternoon
   hours. Localized instances of 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates may occur
   with the heaviest snow bands, which may also be accompanied by
   strong wind gusts and reduced visibility. The best chance for higher
   snowfall rates and stronger winds gusts will be in higher terrain
   areas.

   DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is progressing southeast across
   portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin this morning, providing
   some low-level convergence that is supporting an ongoing band of
   snow over central AZ. Deep-layer ascent is expected to increase
   further as a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak overspreads the region,
   supporting convective snow bands (given sub-freezing surface
   temperatures, steep tropospheric lapse rates, and a near-saturated
   700-500 mb layer per 15Z RAP forecast soundings and 16Z
   mesoanalysis). As such, 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates may accompany the
   stronger snow bands later this morning into the afternoon hours. The
   best chance for heavier snow and strong wind gusts with reduced
   visibility will be in the higher terrain areas. Latest HREF guidance
   suggests that heavier snow and stronger winds are most likely in the
   17-22Z period along the AZ/NM border.

   ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   33890810 33460791 33240832 33160868 33210927 33390994
               33721076 34431155 34841165 35081140 34560999 34120860
               33890810