Mesoscale Discussion 0866
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

   Areas affected...portions of northeastern New Mexico...southeastern
   Colorado...and the far western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 252042Z - 252245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may evolve late this afternoon
   into the early evening. More persistent cells may pose a risk for
   damaging winds and hail. A Weather Watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Afternoon satellite imagery showed thunderstorms
   developing along the higher terrain of the Raton Mesa and the Sangre
   De Cristos. Across the adjacent High Plains, diurnal heating has
   removed much of the inhibition ahead of these developing storms.
   Weak upslope flow and continued heating should allow these storms to
   move off the terrain with additional storms developing over the High
   Plains late this afternoon into the early evening. 1000-1500 J/kg of
   MLCAPE will support robust updrafts but with little shear. Area VADs
   show effective shear generally below 30 kt suggesting storm
   organization may be limited. However, enough buoyancy may be present
   to support some hail with the strongest storms. The severe threat
   may increase later this evening with the arrival of the low-level
   jet. Enhanced shear may support a locally greater risk of supercells
   across northeast NM into the OK/TX panhandles. A greater risk for
   hail and isolated damaging winds may evolve with these potential
   storms later this evening. While uncertainty remains fairly high on
   the coverage of organized storms, the potential for supercells later
   suggests a weather watch may eventually be needed.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 05/25/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35290492 37010522 38140519 38370447 38230346 38090315
               37530282 36800245 36010246 35320248 34950259 34210300
               34270432 34730474 35290492