Mesoscale Discussion 0818
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0630 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

   Areas affected...western Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 182330Z - 190130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail threat will continue over the next
   couple of hours. Trends will continued to be monitored for a
   potential watch.

   DISCUSSION...Within the Texas Panhandle, deep layer shear around
   25-30 kts and MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Within this regime, more
   organized supercells have been ongoing across Potter and Dallam
   counties in Texas over the last hour. These cells will continue to
   pose a severe hail threat (with isolated instances of hail up to
   1.25-2 inches) over the next couple of hours before tendency for
   upscale growth leads to more mixed mode/clustering. This will also
   coincide with increasing CIN and loss of daytime heating. A damaging
   wind threat may linger into the evening, as the low level jet
   increases to around 30-40 kts across southwestern Texas into the
   Texas Panhandle. However, the increasingly stable low-level
   thermodynamic profile and modest lapse rates may limit this threat.
   Trends will continued to be monitored for a potential watch.

   ..Thornton/Smith.. 05/18/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36210285 36460254 36500206 36420144 35950132 35500133
               35260143 35110163 35030193 35050221 35160247 35510279
               36210285