Mesoscale Discussion 0984
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0730 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

   Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Kansas...eastern
   Nebraska and central Iowa.

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 294...

   Valid 310030Z - 310200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 294 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe storms ongoing through much of the watch will
   continue to pose a risk for hail, damaging wind gusts and a couple
   of tornadoes into this evening. Additional development along the
   dryline/cold front intersection should renew severe potential with a
   line of storms later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...As of 0025 UTC, regional radar and surface analysis
   showed several clusters of strong/severe storms ongoing east of a
   dryline/cold front from KS northeastward into central IA. Convection
   on the northern side of the watch has struggled to organize so far
   likely due to deeper mixing of available surface moisture and veered
   low-level winds. Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts will remain
   possible with storms given 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 50-70 kt of
   effective shear. Farther south into portions of KS, several
   supercells have organized east of the dryline along the I-35
   corridor. Several reports of hail and strong winds have been
   observed over the last hour. The severe risk should continue into
   this evening within a warm, moist and buoyant airmass characterized
   bu upper 60s F dewpoints and temperatures in the low 80s F. The
   tornado threat remains less certain, but some 0-1km hodograph
   enlargement has been noted on area VAD VWPs over the last hour in
   response to the increasing nocturnal low-level jet. A couple
   tornadoes will remain possible with the stronger more isolated
   supercells and low-level shear increases tonight. 

   Additional storm development along the western edge of the watch is
   likely later this evening as the surging cold front intersects with
   the dryline. Evening visible imagery shows some enhancement to
   high-based cumulus along the front from southeastern NE into western
   IA. The main threats with these storms will be damaging winds and
   hail, though a QLCS tornado or two will remain possible given the
   increasing low-level shear.

   ..Lyons.. 05/31/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...EAX...TSA...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37009834 43439467 43419268 36999651 37009834