Mesoscale Discussion 0975
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

   Areas affected...portions of northeast NE...southeast SD...far
   southwest MN into far northwest IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 301628Z - 301800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado watch will be needed soon across parts of
   northeast NE into southeast SD and adjacent portions of far
   southwest MN/northwest IA.

   DISCUSSION...The effects of large-scale ascent now shifting east
   across NE is apparent as convection is rapidly increasing near the
   triple point into vicinity of the northeast NE/southeast SD border.
   Some of this activity is still likely elevated, especially across
   SD. However, a surface warm front will continue to lift northward
   the next few hours, allowing for additional destabilization and
   erosion of capping. Storms may initially pose mainly a hail threat,
   but a quick transition toward damaging gust and tornado potential is
   expected over the next few hours with east/northeast extent. 

   Strong forcing amid supercell wind profiles will likely result in
   mixed storm mode, with bowing line segments and semi-discrete
   supercells likely. The KFSD VWP, which is located very near the
   surface warm front, already shows an enlarged, clockwise curved
   low-level hodograph with intense low-level shear/SRH present. This
   will support low-level rotation within semi-discrete convection and
   along any bowing/line segments. Tornadoes and damaging gusts will be
   possible and a watch is likely soon.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/30/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   43229835 43779808 44649736 44729700 44729648 44719593
               44539554 44399546 44159530 43799529 42959582 42449622
               41809696 41679761 41629811 41719844 41929857 42599854
               43229835