Mesoscale Discussion 0589
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0858 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

   Areas affected...Easter Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 158...

   Valid 300158Z - 300400Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 158 continues.

   SUMMARY...Wind damage is expected to become the primary risk with
   time as the cold front moves east. QLCS tornadoes will also remain
   possible. The greatest tornado risk in the short term will exist
   with discrete convection east of Wichita. A new watch south and east
   of these areas may be needed as the cold front moves into those
   areas.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has increased along the advancing cold front
   in easter Kansas. KTWX and KICT radars continue to show several
   line-embedded circulations. A few reported tornadoes have occurred
   along the line in the last hour. With the downstream environment
   remaining favorably sheared at low-levels, some threat for QLCS
   tornadoes will continue this evening. However, the primary threat
   with the linear convection should be damaging winds.

   Farther south, east of Wichita, two discrete supercells continue
   east-northeastward. One of these cells produced a tornado near
   Augusta, KS around 820 CDT and another near El Dorado around 847
   CDT. These discrete storms will pose the greatest tornado threat
   over the next couple of hours. With time, the cold front will
   eventually undercut these storms. Again, damaging winds will become
   the primary threat as this occurs along with a secondary threat of
   QLCS tornadoes.

   The expectation is for the convection along the cold front to build
   southwestward to some degree later this evening. This will place a
   few strong to severe storms into parts of north-central and
   northeast Oklahoma towards midnight. However, with capping
   increasing with southward extent, it is not clear how far south this
   activity will reach. Nevertheless, there is potential for a new
   watch to be issued that would include parts of northern Oklahoma and
   southwest Missouri.

   ..Wendt.. 04/30/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37819765 38869701 39549610 39749584 39649531 39609531
               37659422 36889465 36619550 36649641 36719665 36809742
               37069799 37819765