Mesoscale Discussion 2090
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0540 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021

   Areas affected...portions of northern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 312340Z - 010115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out over the next few
   hours as weak supercells approach a stationary boundary and enhanced
   low-level shear.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2335 UTC, several showers and weak thunderstorms
   showing transient low-level mesocyclones were identified across
   portions of northern Georgia. Ongoing within a marginally unstable
   airmass (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg) ahead of a weak mid-level shortwave
   trough, limited forcing for ascent and buoyancy will likely limit
   the spatial coverage and longevity of ongoing convection. However,
   enhanced low-level shear (0-1km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2) in proximity
   to a diffuse quasi-stationary front may continue to support a brief
   tornado threat with any marginal supercells structures. Gradual
   weakening of the convection should continue through the next several
   hours with the loss of daytime heating. Given the uncertainty on the
   coverage and longevity of the severe threat a weather watch is
   unlikely.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 12/31/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   33618320 33718428 34008489 34758449 34898390 34798323
               34488260 34138227 33818223 33558237 33618320