Mesoscale Discussion 2077
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0341 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern AR...northeastern
   LA...northern MS...and southwestern TN

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 569...

   Valid 292141Z - 292245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 569 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across Tornado Watch 569. A few
   tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail all remain possible
   this afternoon and evening.

   DISCUSSION...A southwest-northeast oriented line of broken
   convection with embedded supercell structures will continue
   advancing east-northeastward ahead of a frontal wave draped across
   parts of the Mid-South. Ahead of the frontal wave across the open
   warm sector, rich boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper 60s
   dewpoints) combined with pockets of diurnal heating are supporting
   500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, where the latest mesoanalysis depicts 55-65
   knots effective bulk shear. Additionally, the latest VWP data from
   GWX shows 55 knot winds at 2.5 to 3 km, indicative of the
   strengthening low-level jet overspreading the warm sector.
   Relatively backed surface winds beneath the strengthening low-level
   flow are evident across northern MS, which are contributing to
   150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH ahead of the ongoing convection. While
   deep-layer shear vectors and storm motion vectors are oriented
   largely parallel to the frontal wave (yielding modest upscale
   growth), shear vectors become oriented off the boundary with
   northward extent into parts of MS. This could support more discrete
   convective modes, which combined with the favorable and increasing
   low-level SRH should favor an increasing risk of a few tornadoes,
   damaging wind gusts, and large hail.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 12/29/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33399220 33819165 34389052 34858972 35388872 35338814
               35068819 34038824 33628834 33059024 32739139 32759201
               32969237 33229234 33399220