Mesoscale Discussion 2073
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0118 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

   Areas affected...extreme southeast AR into northern MS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 569...

   Valid 291918Z - 292045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 569 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorms threat is expected to increase
   over the next couple of hours across northern MS.

   DISCUSSION...GOES-16 1-minute data, specifically the cloud phase
   distinction RGB, has shown vertical development in TCU with
   beginnings of glaciation from near the Mississippi River in far
   northeast LA into north-central MS over the past 30 minutes. Should
   this trend continue and semi-discrete cells develop, a corridor of
   greater relative severe threat can be expected over the next 2-3
   hours across the MCD area. 

   A surface boundary from morning convection extends from near Tunica,
   eastward across northern MS. To the south of this boundary,
   temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s  with dewpoints in the
   upper 60s to near 70 F. This has resulted in rather quick
   destabilization with MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. Recent VWP
   data from KGWX shows a vertically veering wind profile with a
   somewhat small, but favorably curved low-level hodograph. Low-level
   shear is forecast to improve somewhat with time, resulting in
   slightly larger hodographs and a more favorable environment to
   support supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes this
   afternoon.

   ..Leitman.. 12/29/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34479085 34678970 34708901 34618871 34318840 34128844
               33798871 33438921 33208968 33198982 33119008 33089093
               33199124 33349135 33609139 33799133 34129123 34339103
               34479085