Mesoscale Discussion 2029
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern NE and northeastern KS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 563...

   Valid 152030Z - 152200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 563 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes and widespread severe winds
   of 60-85+ mph will spread east-northeastward across parts of eastern
   Nebraska and northeastern KS through 4 PM CST.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms has quickly developed early this
   afternoon across portions of north-central KS into south-central NE.
   Multiple measured wind gusts of 60-85 mph have been recorded across
   this region as the line moved through. 20Z mesoanalysis shows a
   narrow corridor of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE preceding the line across
   northeastern KS into southeastern NE with minimal convective
   inhibition noted due to the pronounced large-scale ascent preceding
   a shortwave trough ejecting over the central Plains. A recent VWP
   from KUEX shows a rapid increase in southwesterly flow in the 0-2 km
   layer, with winds quickly increasing to around 70-80 kt just 1 km
   AGL. Potential for these enhanced winds to reach the surface in
   convective downdrafts will remain high in the short term across
   northeastern KS and eastern NE as the line races east-northeastward
   across this area around 50-60 kt. Widespread severe/damaging winds
   of 60-85 mph will likely be the primary severe threat, with some
   potential for even higher gusts given the strength of the low-level
   flow. A few tornadoes with circulations embedded within the line
   will also be a continued threat with the enhanced low-level shear
   present (effective SRH around 200-300 m2/s2). A couple of these
   circulations have already been observed in south-central NE, with at
   least one CC minimum (likely TDS).

   ..Gleason.. 12/15/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   39339789 39729792 40479802 41429832 42399761 42439650
               41669618 40029570 39609580 39289765 39339789