Mesoscale Discussion 1981
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0420 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

   Areas affected...Northeast Texas...far southeast Oklahoma...and far
   southwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 102220Z - 102345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are possible
   across portions of the Arklatex.

   DISCUSSION...High based showers have developed along a dryline which
   has recently passed through Dallas. These showers are now moving
   into a more moisture rich airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s.
   This is yielding MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg beneath strong
   mid-level flow and effective shear in excess of 60 knots. Therefore,
   further intensification of these showers are possible. The threat
   will likely remain isolated, but the environment is quite favorable
   for supercells with an initial large hail threat with an increasing
   tornado threat with eastward extent. The isolated nature of any
   storm development may preclude the need for a watch, but if storm
   intensity is great enough or if more storms develop, a watch may be
   needed.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 12/10/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33279692 34019584 34579457 34189338 33319365 32189491
               31809694 31979759 33279692