Mesoscale Discussion 1965
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0301 AM CST Mon Dec 06 2021

   Areas affected...central and northeastern Arkansas into western
   Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 550...

   Valid 060901Z - 061000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 550
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Local risk for gusty/damaging winds will continue over the
   next 1 to 2 hours.  However, a new WW -- to extend beyond the
   scheduled 10Z expiration of WW 550 -- appears unnecessary given
   expected/limited risk.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of storms -- exhibiting
   anafrontal characteristics -- moving across central and northeastern
   Arkansas at this time, representing the tail end of the longer,
   frontal band of storms that extends east-northeastward to
   southwestern Ohio.  Meanwhile, a second, more loosely organized
   pre-frontal convective band continues to evolve near and east of the
   Mississippi River into western Tennessee.

   Ahead of the convection, a boundary layer featuring dewpoints in the
   upper 50s to low 60s is contributing to modest mixed-layer CAPE
   (around 500 J/kg per the latest RUC objective analyses).  However, a
   slightly stable boundary layer is also hinted at, owing to the
   diurnal cooling.  This, combined with front-parallel flow aloft,
   continues to limit overall risk for damaging winds.

   While some uptick in convective intensity may occur as storms
   approach/cross the Tennessee Valley, where the axis of instability
   resides, substantial increase in what has proven to be minimal
   severe potential is not expected.  Therefore, while we will continue
   to monitor convective and environmental evolution, new WW issuance
   is not currently anticipated.

   ..Goss.. 12/06/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34509376 35319235 36408950 36608732 35818797 34419163
               34509376