Mesoscale Discussion 1952
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0502 PM CST Sun Nov 28 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of western NY and far northwestern PA

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 282302Z - 290400Z

   SUMMARY...A narrow band of lake effect snow capable of producing
   heavy snowfall, with rates of 2+ inches per hour, will continue
   through the evening while gradually shifting southward.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery from KBUF shows a narrow band of
   heavy lake effect snowfall present over parts of southwestern NY
   downstream from Lake Erie. This band is well organized, and will
   likely persist through the evening while gradually shifting
   southward into parts of far northwestern PA. Cold mid-level
   temperatures associated with an upper trough/low over the Great
   Lakes and seasonably warm water temperatures on Lake Erie are
   supporting weak boundary-layer instability, with multiple lighting
   flashes noted within the band over the past hour or so. The presence
   of steep low/mid-level lapse rates, a saturated moisture profile,
   and strong lift associated with the upper trough will help to
   maintain this heavy snow band for the next several hours, with
   snowfall rates in the band of 2+ inches per hour likely. As the
   upper trough continues eastward this evening, low/mid-level winds
   will gradually veer to a more northwesterly component versus
   westerly, and the band should slowly shift southward accordingly
   before eventually weakening late this evening/early Monday morning.

   ..Gleason.. 11/28/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

   LAT...LON   42098028 42307958 42497890 42477787 42457715 42347710
               41967757 41657826 41637914 41667986 41868034 41998040
               42098028