Mesoscale Discussion 1927
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1044 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

   Areas affected...extreme northeast North Carolina into southeast
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 291544Z - 291645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Low-topped convection will pose a modest threat for a
   couple of locally strong wind gusts and a brief tornado. At this
   time the overall magnitude and spacial extent of any severe threat
   does not appear to warrant a WW.

   DISCUSSION...An arcing band of low-topped convection extends from
   southeast VA into far northeast NC. Activity is developing along a
   pre-frontal convergence band extending inland from the Gulf Stream.
   A narrow corridor of weak instability is indicated with 500-1000
   J/kg MLCAPE along and south of a warm front that extends across
   southeast VA. A relatively small window will exist for this
   convection to become better organized and capable of producing a
   couple of locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
   where sizeable low-level hodographs exists across coastal NC and
   southeast VA. The inland advance of the warm sector will remain
   limited, keeping the spatial extent of the threat relatively small.

   ..Dial/Hart.. 10/29/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

   LAT...LON   37777595 36187514 35757570 36687623 37727711 37777595