Mesoscale Discussion 1899
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0201 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

   Areas affected...parts of central and western North Carolina into
   south-central Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251901Z - 252100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe risk -- largely in the form of locally strong wind
   gusts -- will gradually increase this afternoon and into early
   evening.  A WW may be required.

   DISCUSSION...A band of pre-frontal large-scale ascent -- associated
   with a mid-/upper-level vort max crossing western Ohio -- continues
   to spread across the Appalachians at this time.  Ahead of this band
   of cloud cover/precipitation, weak heating/destabilization is
   ongoing across an area centered from south-central Virginia into
   central North Carolina.  Here, temperatures warming into the 70s and
   dewpoints increasing into the 60s have resulted in 500 J/kg
   mixed-layer CAPE development per recent objective analysis.  As
   large-scale ascent gradually overspreads this slightly more unstable
   environment, an increase in coverage/intensity of what thus far has
   been weak convection east of the mountains, is expected.

   As stronger/southwesterly flow aloft likewise spreads atop the area
   of greatest instability, shear will become supportive of organized
   storms.  While a few rotating cells may evolve initially, which
   would include a non-zero tornado risk, upscale growth into
   lines/bands is expected -- particularly this evening as the cold
   front moves/redevelops east of the mountains.  As such, the more
   substantial overall risk is likely to be wind.

   ..Goss/Thompson.. 10/25/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35597969 35538083 35958135 36747983 37927859 38047771
               37417688 36237739 35847816 35597969