Mesoscale Discussion 1850
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0326 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of western/northern OK into south-central
   and southeastern KS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 524...526...

   Valid 130826Z - 131000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 524, 526 continues.

   SUMMARY...Mainly an isolated strong to severe wind threat continues
   with a line of storms moving eastward.

   DISCUSSION...Observations from the OK Mesonet and other sites in
   OK/KS show that the wind gusts associated with an extensive squall
   line have largely remained sub-severe over the past hour or so, with
   a wind gust to 50 kt at KICT at 0810Z being the exception. While
   there is at least moderate boundary-layer instability ahead of the
   line per mesoanalysis, there is likely also a shallow near-surface
   stable layer which is inhibiting convective downdraft potential to
   some extent. Even so, there is still some chance for occasional
   strong to severe wind gusts to breach this stable layer and reach
   the surface given the strength of the low/mid-level flow present
   across OK/KS.  Both low/deep-layer shear vectors are becoming
   oriented increasingly parallel to the squall line (see recent VWPs
   from KFDR, KVNX, and KICT). This should tend to limit the potential
   for low-level circulations embedded within the QLCS, but a brief
   tornado still remains possible given the strength of the low-level
   flow associated with a strong, 50-60+ kt southerly low-level jet.

   ..Gleason.. 10/13/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34539985 34999942 35479907 36169857 36889799 37759754
               38499703 38439640 37029649 35779719 34939813 34399916
               34539985