Mesoscale Discussion 1842
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0730 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

   Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle and Western Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 523...

   Valid 130030Z - 130230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 523 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues across WW 523. The
   greatest near-term threat will remain across western OK associated
   with isolated supercells, but a second round of storms remains
   likely later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery shows a few supercells
   moving north/northeastward across far north Texas and western
   Oklahoma. The west-central OK supercell has exhibited strong
   low-level rotation, indicating that the ample low-level shear over
   the region (200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH sampled by the KFDR VWP and
   analyzed in recent RAP mesoanalysis) is compensating for lingering
   mixed-layer inhibition. The tornado threat associated with this
   storm will continue for the near term, and may persist into the late
   evening hours as low-level wind fields strengthen in response to the
   deepening surface low to the north. 

   Additional discrete cells are possible across southwest OK and/or
   the eastern TX Panhandle along the warm front within the next 1-2
   hours, but weak forcing for ascent, substantial mid-level dry air
   entrainment, and the onset of diurnal cooling make confidence in
   discrete storm coverage uncertain. Latest hi-res guidance has
   depicted this potential, but run-to-run consistency has been
   somewhat poor, further reducing confidence. 

   Additional storms are likely later this evening/overnight as
   stronger lift associated with the approach of the main upper-level
   wave (manifesting as increasing showers and weak convection over the
   southern High Plains) overspreads the region. Increasingly
   meridional flow along the initiating cold front will support mostly
   linear storm modes, but increasing low-level shear within the warm
   sector should maintain a QLCS tornado threat over the watch area.

   ..Moore.. 10/13/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34500004 34920063 35460117 36180145 36790146 37010086
               36829988 36679951 36149884 35329834 34639813 34259816
               34069842 34029859 34039936 34500004