Mesoscale Discussion 1840
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0314 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

   Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 122014Z - 122245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A few supercells may develop through evening, from the
   eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Tornadoes,
   perhaps strong, and very large hail will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a front extending from northern
   TX into southwest OK which is becoming more diffuse with heating.
   This boundary separates a cooler/capped air mass over much of OK
   from a destabilizing air mass over northwest TX and into the TX
   Panhandle. Meanwhile, a dryline stretches from north to south across
   the TX Panhandle and South Plains.

   Visible satellite shows stable billow clouds north of the boundary,
   but these are gradually eroding from south to north as temperatures
   warm into the lower 80s F. A growing CU field is also evident over
   northwest TX, where MLCAPE is in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Backed
   surface winds on the cool side of the boundary are contributing to
   100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per FDR VWP.

   Although convergence is currently weak, it is expected to increase
   around 00Z and into the evening as the dryline eventually pushes
   east with the upper trough. A few more hours of air mass
   modification will occur, including moistening. In addition, the
   low-level jet will continue to increase to over 50 kt, further
   enhancing shear.

   Assuming a cell or two can form, they should quickly acquire
   rotation, with tornadoes and hail likely. Any lone cells that can
   maintain access to the warm side of the boundary will have the
   potential for a strong tornado.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 10/12/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34959921 34639932 34139955 33929976 33760008 33720037
               33790060 33930069 34480088 35050125 35580118 35960072
               36389981 36319967 36279954 35749914 34959921