Mesoscale Discussion 1791
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0313 PM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

   Areas affected...Parts of northwest Texas into the Edwards Plateau

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 292013Z - 292215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms capable of producing marginally severe hail
   and locally strong wind gusts are possible into the 5-7 PM CDT time
   frame.

   DISCUSSION...With strong daytime heating and deep boundary-layer
   mixing to its west, the dryline has sharpened, roughly west of
   Wichita Falls southward toward Junction.  Mixed-layer CAPE is
   maximizing (on the order of 2000 J/kg) in a narrow corridor along
   and to its east, with the initiation of scattered thunderstorm
   development ongoing, ahead of weak lower/mid tropospheric troughing.
    Deep-layer mean flow and shear are generally weak, but veering with
   height might still be sufficient to support occasional isolated
   supercell structures with the potential to produce severe hail.  

   Sustained storms may tend to slowly advect east of the dryline, but
   they are expected to weaken with inflow of less unstable air. 
   However, the dryline probably will remain the focus for renewed
   vigorous thunderstorm development into early evening, before the
   boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 09/29/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31669958 32229950 33079891 33959883 33989816 33099785
               31139912 31189973 31669958