Mesoscale Discussion 1776
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0144 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021

   Areas affected...portions of central into northern South
   Carolina...western North Carolina...western Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221844Z - 222115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms
   through the remainder of the afternoon. A WW issuance is not
   anticipated given the isolated, brief nature of the severe threat.

   DISCUSSION...A broad confluence zone, delineating the surface cold
   front/lee trough axis, is progressing across the central/southern
   Appalachians, accompanied primarily by heavier rain bands. However,
   adequate diurnal heating in advance of this confluence band has
   supported surface temperatures reaching near 80 F with 70+ F
   dewpoints, contributing to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the absence of
   appreciable lapse rates (per 18Z mesoanalysis). 

   With continued surface heating, and modest deep-layer ascent from
   the approaching mid-level trough overspreading the surface
   lee-trough axis, some convective intensification is expected along
   the aforementioned confluence zone. However,
   unidirectional/meridional tropospheric flow suggests that vertical
   shear profiles will be mediocre in terms of supporting severe
   potential. Coupled with less than 5.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates,
   updrafts are not expected to become overly robust, hence the
   unlikelihood of a WW issuance. Nonetheless, one of the stronger 
   line segments within the confluence band may support a couple strong
   wind gusts this afternoon.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/22/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...RLX...CAE...
   GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   34728287 37698066 38178016 38117943 37867891 37377855
               36847850 36217856 35427903 34447956 33578005 32978042
               32888089 33188152 34728287