Mesoscale Discussion 1774
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021

   Areas affected...portions of extreme southeast Arkansas into far
   northeast Louisiana and northwest Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 212000Z - 212215Z

   CORRECTED FOR WORDING

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A damaging gust or two remains possible, particularly with
   the more organized line segments. The overall severe threat appears
   too sparse and brief to warrant a WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular storms have congealed into loosely
   organized linear segments over the past couple of hours due to cold
   pool mergers. Few reports have been received of damaging gusts so
   far. However, peak heating is underway, supporting near 90F surface
   temperatures and a mixed boundary layer, contributing to 2000+ J/kg
   MLCAPE. As such, a damaging gust or two cannot be ruled out with the
   more potent water-loaded storm cores. Nonetheless, damaging gusts
   should remain very isolated and brief, precluding a WW issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/21/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33339280 34059176 34469066 34359005 34148972 33758956
               33168953 32858958 32649025 32519092 32529137 32549188
               32699235 32879275 33339280