Mesoscale Discussion 1766
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0508 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

   Areas affected...West-central/Southwest Kansas...Western
   Oklahoma...Eastern Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 172208Z - 180045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat is expected to develop over the
   next few hours from west-central Kansas southward into the eastern
   Texas Panhandle. The threat should remain too isolated for watch
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Goodland shows
   thunderstorms developing in northern Kansas to the north of a front
   extending east-northeastward across north-central Kansas. The front
   also extends southward into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
   Surface dewpoints are currently in the lower 60s F to the east of
   the front where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg
   range by the RAP. Additional convection has developed on the
   southwestern end of the strongest instability just to the south of
   Dodge City. This convection may gradually strengthen early this
   evening as low-level convergence becomes enhanced along and to the
   east of the front. New thunderstorms may also develop over the next
   1 to 2 hours further south in the eastern Texas Panhandle. In
   addition to the instability, RAP forecast soundings early this
   evening show directional shear throughout the low to mid-levels with
   0-6 km shear around 25 kt. This may be enough for marginally severe
   storms capable of hail and strong gusty winds. The threat should
   persist for a few hours this evening but will likely remain too
   marginal for weather watch issuance.

   ..Broyles.. 09/17/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37420101 38370076 38970018 39179975 39179946 39009898
               38769893 38119945 37619966 36679979 35049975 34800037
               35020082 35470095 36420109 37420101