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Mesoscale Discussion 1752 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1752
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021
Areas affected...southeast LA...coastal MS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 150949Z - 151145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Transient/weak mesocyclones embedded within a rain shield
will potentially be capable of a tornado risk for the next few
hours.
DISCUSSION...KLIX radar imagery over the past couple of hours has
shown an increase in the number and intensity of low-level
mesocyclones over southeast LA and adjacent coastal waters south of
the MS coast. KLIX VAD data shows a supportive hodograph for
low-level rotation and surface observations and RAP forecast
soundings indicate a very moist/weakly buoyant environment. As
such, transient supercell structure will probably continue in the
short term and potentially pose a weak/short-lived tornado threat
with any more persistent/intense circulations. The overall
magnitude and isolated character of the tornado risk will likely
preclude a tornado watch issuance.
..Smith/Guyer.. 09/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 29938996 30308981 30618921 30518837 30228825 29638881
29638945 29938996
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