Mesoscale Discussion 1737
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0952 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

   Areas affected...portions of west-central and southwestern Lower
   Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131452Z - 131615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Gusty winds -- possibly nearing severe levels locally --
   will move onshore over the next half hour, across Muskegon and
   Ottawa Counties.  However, storms should remain elevated/north of
   the front, which will limit any severe risk.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms moving across southern Lake
   Michigan has organized a bit over the past half hour -- aided by
   fairly steep lapse rates aloft and strong mid-level westerlies --
   with hints of bowing as a favored zone of updraft redevelopment is
   indicated along leading outflow.  This suggests to at least some
   degree that downdrafts are penetrating the stable boundary layer
   north of the cold front over southern Lower Michigan/southern Lake
   Michigan. 

   This convection will move onshore over the next half hour or so,
   with gusty winds expected.  However, given the aforementioned stable
   layer, gusts should remain largely -- if not entirely -- below
   severe levels -- likely in the 40 to 50 MPH range.  As such, WW is
   not currently anticipated, but we will continue to monitor
   convective evolution as storms approach/reach coastal counties.

   ..Goss/Thompson.. 09/13/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43448678 43468586 43288449 42698467 42478538 42628709
               42668750 43448678