Mesoscale Discussion 1717
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0530 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

   Areas affected...Northern Hudson Valley to VT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 082230Z - 090000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few wind gusts are possible with a squall line this
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale forcing appears to be
   aiding upscale linear growth in thunderstorms this evening. Squall
   line has matured and currently extends from northwest VT-northern
   Hudson Valley-northeast PA. Northern extent of this squall line is
   advancing across an instability axis less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE,
   with surface-3km lapse rates on the order of 7 C/km. Given the
   observed shear, organized updrafts are expected along this corridor
   but weaker buoyancy across New England should limit future
   intensification. At this time it appears gusty winds may be common
   but organized severe wind gusts are not currently anticipated. A
   severe thunderstorm watch is not currently warranted due to the
   marginal thermodynamic environment, but a watch is still possible
   farther southwest of this region.

   ..Darrow/Grams.. 09/08/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...

   LAT...LON   43027394 44987250 44707199 42947294 43027394